Dr. Grip recently published Does Projecting Enrollments by Race Produce More Accurate Results in New Jersey School Districts? in the journal Population Research and Policy Review in the December 2009 issue.  

The article looks at 12 districts in New Jersey of varying size and majority race percentages to determine whether projecting enrollment by race or with all races combined is more accurate.  The results showed that projecting with all races combined produced lower percent differences to actual counts than when projecting by race, particularly for smaller districts.  The findings also showed that projecting enrollment by race might be suitable for larger school districts with low majority race percentages.